National commitments to combat climate change are running short. The current pace of national action is clearly insufficient; to meet the original targets, nations must triple their ambition to meet the 2°C target, and fifth fold to meet the 1.5°C target. Otherwise, current trends most likely will result in global warming of around 3°C by the end of the century, with continued temperature rises.
The 2018 annual Emissions Gap Report presents an assessment of the ’emissions gap’ between anticipated emission levels in 2030 compared to levels consistent with a 2°C / 1.5°C target. The report also provided the latest accounts of national mitigation efforts and ambitions presented by countries that signed the Paris Agreement.
Evidence from the report showed global emission reaching historic levels at 53.5 GtCO2e, and was expected to continue soaring – with no signs of peaking. The Authors assessed that only 57 countries (representing 60 percent of global emissions) are on track to do so by 2030.
While there still is hope in bridging the emissions gap and keeping global warming below 2°C, the assessment speaks an intolerable warning: we urgently need a drastic, large-scale action, and this is yet to be seen. The Emissions Gap Report therefore offered a roadmap for implementing the type of transformative action required to maximize potential and initiate the large-scale action.
Non-state actors increasingly commit to bold climate action, and are increasingly considered a key to achieving the global emissions goals. Some even predict them 19 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) reduction potential by 2030, value sufficient to close the 2°C gap.
If complimented with carefully designed fiscal policy, this potential increases. “When governments embrace fiscal policy measures to subsidize low-emission alternatives and tax fossil fuels, they can stimulate the right investments in the energy sector and significantly reduce carbon emissions.” said Jian Liu, UN Environment’s Chief Scientist. “If all fossil fuel subsidies were phased out, global carbon emissions could be reduced by up to 10 percent by 2030.”
Finally, these established pathways are further enhanced when policy makers embrace innovative solutions, such as including risk-acceptance commercial scalability, holistic economic alignment, mission-oriented approaches and a long term-horizon to increase financial uptake.
